May sales disappoint.
Friday, June 4th, 2010Well, Memorial Day came late, bemoaned retailers, trying to rationalize punk May sales. Remember the placement of Easter wasn’t good either. Wait until back to school and we’ll find that some retailer’s dog ate his homework.
American consumers aren’t feeling terribly secure about their jobs, the state of the economy and a leaderless hysteria that is being played-out as daily routine in the nation’s capitol. This is looking more like Jimmy Carter and the Iranian hostage standoff of 1979 and 1980. That was no boom time either.
For weeks now, we see an underwater gusher of oil, displaced reporters with nothing to add to public knowledge about the Gulf Coast and meaningless rhetoric on placing blame. This is bad theater, and the American public is getting really pissed off. Americans don’t like to feel or think they are powerless. They go into a funk.
The International Council of Shopping Centers expected 3.5 percent sales comp increases and got 2.6 instead. Remember May 2009 was no barn-burner either.
Department stores are barely keeping up with general merchandise inflation. Macy’s had a 1.4 percent comp increase; Dillard’s was flat; JCPenney took a 1.8 percent hit. Target was up 1.3 percent, being left behind by warehouse clubs Costco, up 9 percent, and BJ, up 11.3 percent. Nordstrom disappointed at a plus 3.7 percent and Saks had a 5.8 percent increase. Bon-Ton was down 1.1 percent.
The apparel discounters are taking share from department stores in apparel and home furnishings/housewares. TJX had 4 percent increases in comp sales, while Ross Stores was up 5 percent. Kohl’s was up 3.5 percent.
Sales increases at discounters are up more dramatically if one factors in new store openings. If one projects out a continued increase in stores, TJX, Ross and Kohl’s will become far larger than their department store counterparts in three to five years.
The pitched battle between JCPenney and Macy’s is not doing Penney one bit of good. Macy’s has dropped prices and become more promotional, somewhat forfeiting its traditional department store role. In this new economy, department stores are less fashion-driven and are more price-conscious.
Overall, all stores are more oriented to moving inventory via computerized models. Product selection is narrowed and inventory turn is based on previous sales data. Buyers/merchandisers are minimized and fashion cycles become mostly meaningless. Fashion stores are now specialty retailers that are basically European-based such as H&M, Mango, Zara and others.
In the food arena, there is food deflation, according to analysts. However, this means that tightly managed food chains such as Aldi, Super Valu and Walmart have cut product selections, sizes and turn their inventories rapidly. This is reflected in lower prices or deflation.
However, this is not deflation. It means cheaper prices result in fewer employees both at retail and on the manufacturing side of the equation. To become more efficient, department stores have been cutting staffs to mirror discounters such as TJX. Why pay $400 for a blouse at Saks if you can buy the same or a similar item for much less at Loehmann’s or TJX?